As the third quarter came to an end tourism trends overall stayed the same and were as expected . After the third quarter, tourism was both down in comparison to 2023 as well as 2019, but overall the State of Hawaii saw a good third quarter. The third quarter overall for the Big Island was down fairly significantly compared to 2023. This was expected and is due to the increased tourism in 2023 due to the Maui wildfires. Let’s take a look at some of the key statistics.
Total Visitors
This is the statistics that most people look at first and after the third quarter is starting to see a positive towards pre-COVID numbers. While this is promising for the State of Hawaii, it does not necessarily make a big difference for vacation rental homeowners. Total visitors are only down 1.4% in comparison to 2023. There is a 10% increase in international visitors along with a 3.5% decrease in domestic visitors.
Given that there is an increase in international visitors, Oahu fared the best of all the islands given that that is the most popular of all the Hawaiian islands. The Big Island of Hawaii has a 3.4% decrease in tourism compared to 2023, but is still faring the second best of all the islands.
Total Expenditures
This is an important item for vacation rental homeowners since at the end of the day it is not necessarily about how booked your property is, but about how much money you make. Total expenditures are still up as compared to 2019, but are down compared to 2023. Due to this we will have to watch pricing moving forward to make sure we are still in line with what is happening in the industry around the State of Hawaii. A reasonable expectation is that prices will remain high during the winter months, but will become more competitive starting after spring break, which may bring rates down some. That will still remain higher than 2019, but may be less than 2023.
Hotels vs. Vacation Rentals vs. Timeshares
Vacation Rentals continue to see a the greatest decrease in choice for accommodation type. While that can be alarming, if you keep up with the trends, it is somewhat expected. From 2021-2023 vacation rentals saw a steady increase in demand due to people wanting to travel to Hawaii, but not be mixed with large groups of people. Vacation rentals answered that demand. As COVID has become less of a concern many people have gone back to hotels. Another item that has caused the change is the change of hotel room types. Over the course of the last 6 years many of the hotels in Hawaii have modified a portion of their rooms to look for like condos with more space and a kitchen, which then gives guests the luxury of an accommodation similar to a vacation rental, but the amenities of a hotel.
Waikoloa Vacation Rentals
Overall we are still seeing better numbers than the industry as a whole, but are definitely overall seeing decreases in the same areas as the State of Hawaii is. We continuously watch the Hawaii tourism industry as well as have our own software that provides year over year comparisons to see how we are faring as a company. We suspect that things will stay consistent through this coming winter, but to stay competitive in the summer of 2025 we may have to decrease rates slightly.