As the first half of 2025 came to an end tourism looks healthy overall for the Hawaiian Islands. Overall we are seeing travel trends move back to what they were in 2019 prior COVID. We will take a look at trends both from 2019 to 2025 as well as 2024 compared to 2025.
One thing to keep in mind while looking at these statistics, is every vacation rentals do not align with the statistics every year. Sometimes one vacation rental can be faring better than the statistics and the next year faring worse. That is why we try to look at the data over the course of a few years and then then compare each vacation rental within that time period to see overall if it aligns.
Tourism
Overall tourism has not found its way back to the numbers Hawaii was experiencing in 2019. There has been an increase since 2024, but at the current pace it would take a few years to get back to the first quarter numbers of 2019 with it currently being over 4% less than 2019. Until COVID happened, the State of Hawaii was on record setting paces almost every month. While at first look this may seem negative, there is a positive factor that may be leading to the decreased numbers.
Expenditures
While tourism is down some, expenditures are up significantly. While this is not the only factor leading to tourism not rising as much as you would want, it is one of the key factors. Hawaii vacations cost more than they did in 2019. If you are a vacation rental homeowner this is the key statistic to look at. If tourism is down, but the amount spent is up then typically you are in pretty good shape. While the annual overall trends don’t typically match up with each vacation rental, over time we have seen them to be fairly similar.
One of the unknows is how much of the increase is related to inflation, which also means homeowners have increased costs so although expenditures are up, it may not necessarily mean that net income is up.
Island of Choice
Until 2019 there was not much differentiation from year to year of which island people visited. The few years after COVID you saw an increase in the smaller islands as people wanted to stay away from the larger groups of people. In 2023 we had the Maui wildfire which caused some people to stay on other islands. The Big Island saw the greatest benefit from that. As all the businesses open on Maui we are starting to see things go back to normal, which means some people going back to Maui. The only island with a unexpected change is Kauai with some growth while all the other smaller islands saw a descent decrease in tourism.
Accommodation of Choice
As a vacation rental homeowner this is probably the most important statistic. Are the people coming to Hawaii choosing to stay in a vacation rental. Tourism and expenditures can go up, but if people aren’t choosing to stay in vacation rentals, it is not good for you as a homeowner.
Overall vacation rentals are stabilizing it appears. After COVID we saw an increase in people staying in vacation rentals in attempts to stay away from larger groups in elevators, the amenities, etc. In 2024 you saw a decrease back to what was normal and in 2025 it increased just under 1%, which overall means it is stabilizing.
Timeshares are consistently taking a relatively significant drop. This could be due to stabilizing as well since 2024 was one of the best years timeshares ever had in Hawaii. Hotels overall saw a descent increase, which also points to post-COVID stabilization.
In the coming years the biggest challenge to vacation rentals in Waikoloa Beach Resort will be that both the Waikoloa Beach Marriott and Hilton Waikoloa converted a significant amount of rooms into timeshare type accommodations that include kitchens and more space. These obviously was a way of them trying to compete with the growing vacation rental market. Since then, vacation rentals in Waikoloa Beach Resort have not seen as much grown as they were prior to these rooms being converted. Currently the hotels have these rooms priced a descent amount higher than a vacation rental of comparative size so that helps to keep less of the vacation rental renters going over to those accommodations.
Conclusion
Overall things seem to be looking good for 2025 as a whole. The hotels have stated that the second half of the summer was not as successful as expected so it is possible that that leads to a similar trend for vacation rentals. Overall 2025 is looking to be a better year income wise for vacation rentals on the Big Island of Hawaii. The one struggle is the continued increase in expenses for vacation rental homeowners.
About the Author
Rob Dalton is the owner of Waikoloa Vacation Rentals, which specializes in vacation rentals on the Big Island of Hawaii. He has been in the vacation rental industry on the island for over 20 years.