As the first quarter came to an end tourism looks healthy overall for the Hawaiian Islands. Overall we are seeing travel trends move back to what they were in 2019 prior COVID. We will take a look at trends both from 2019 to 2025 as well as 2024 compared to 2025.
Tourism
Overall tourism has not found its way back to the numbers Hawaii was experiencing in 2019. There has been an increase since 2024, but at the current pace it would take a few years to get back to the first quarter numbers of 2019. Until COVID happened, the first quarter of 2020 was looking to be the best the State of Hawaii had experienced. While at first look this may seem negative, there is a positive factor that may be leading to the decreased numbers.
Expenditures
While tourism is down some, expenditures are up significantly. While this is not the only factor leading to tourism not rising as much as you would want, it is one of the key factors. Hawaii vacations cost more than they did in 2019. If you are a vacation rental homeowner this is the key statistic to look at. If tourism is down, but the amount spent is up then typically you are in pretty good shape. While the annual overall trends don’t typically match up with each vacation rental, over time we have seen them to be fairly similar.
Island of Choice
Until 2019 there was not much differentiation from year to year of which island people visited. The few years after COVID you saw an increase in the smaller islands as people wanted to stay away from the larger groups of people. In 2023 we had the Maui wildfire which caused some people to stay on other islands. The Big Island saw the greatest benefit from that. As all the businesses open on Maui we are starting to see things go back to normal.
Accommodation of Choice
As a vacation rental homeowner this is probably the most important statistic. Are the people coming to Hawaii choosing to stay in a vacation rental. Tourism and expenditures can go up, but if people aren’t choosing to stay in vacation rentals, it is not good for you as a homeowner.
Overall vacation rentals are stabilizing it appears. After COVID you saw an increase in people staying in vacation rentals in attempts to stay away from groups. In 2024 you saw a decrease back to what was normal and in 2025 it increased just under 1%, which overall means it is stabilizing.
Timeshares took a relatively significant drop. This could be due to stabilizing as well since 2024 was one of the best years timeshares ever had in Hawaii. Hotels overall saw a descent increase, which also points to post-COVID stabilization.
Conclusion
Overall things seem to be looking good for 2025 as a whole. The hotels are expecting a slow summer so it is possible that that leads to a similar trend for vacation rentals. Overall 2025 is looking to be a better year income wise for vacation rentals on the Big Island of Hawaii. While we won’t get into in this post, the biggest issue is finding ways to minimize expenses.
About the Author
Rob Dalton is the owner of Waikoloa Vacation Rentals, which specializes in vacation rentals on the Big Island of Hawaii. He has been in the vacation rental industry on the island for over 20 years.